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Can I predict the future?
CrowdScience
Aug 5, 2019

Humans have been trying to predict the future since ancient times. The Chinese had the I-Ching while the Greeks preferred to search for answers in animal entrails. These days intelligence agencies around the world mostly rely on expert opinions to forecast events. But there are ordinary people among us that routinely outperform experts when it comes to making accurate predictions about the future. Listener Cicely wants to know whether these non-experts, so-called “super-forecasters”, really exist and if so, how does it work? She has noticed that people in her family – herself included – are surprisingly good at predicting events.

CrowdScience investigates and finds that there is no hocus-pocus involved. On the contrary, scientists have found that super-forecasters tend to have certain personality traits and skills. And there is more good news; researchers believe that these skills can been taught. CrowdScience presenter Graihagh Jackson takes up the challenge and tests her own predicting abilities.

Presented by Graihagh Jackson and produced by Louisa Field

(Photo: A barefoot woman on a beach, showing two lucky dices in her hands. Credit: Getty Images)

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When will the next super-volcano erupt?

Is the world sitting on a ticking time bomb? CrowdScience listener Christel recently watched a documentary about a volcanic eruption in 536 AD that left her native Sweden under a cloud of ash for three years. It got her thinking, do we know when this could happen again?

With more than 300 volcanoes – and 24 of them listed as currently active – the Philippines is a country where trying to predict eruptions has huge real world consequences.

Presenter Anand Jagatia travels to Manila to meet the scientists at PHIVOLCS, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, including the head of their Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division, Mariton Antonia Bornas, to find out how they try to predict volcanic activity in the country and help make sure communities are evacuated out of harm’s way.

He travels with the team to Taal volcano, which experienced violent eruptions in 2020 and has been active again this year, to visit the observatory monitoring for signs of future activity and to hike to the main crater of the volcano with resident volcanologist Paolo Reniva.

He also speaks to Dr George Cooper from Cardiff University in the UK about what makes a volcano a supervolcano, and to ask the all important question of if we know when this will happen again.

Presenter: Anand Jagatia

Producer: Dan Welsh

Editor: Ben Motley

(Photo: Smoke Emitting From Volcanic Mountain Against Sky - stock photo -EyeEm Mobile GmbH via Getty Images)


29min 05sec




Can I predict the future?

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