Home  >  Discovery  >  The Evidence: Are national lockdowns evidence of policy failure?
Discovery
The Evidence: Are national lockdowns evidence of policy failure?
Discovery
Oct 31, 2020

As a surge of cases risks overwhelming health services in parts of Europe, Claudia Hammond and experts from around the world examine the evidence behind using lockdowns to supress the virus.

Lockdowns describe a huge range of actions that many governments took in the first wave of the pandemic when so little was known about where the virus was circulating. But full lockdowns are seen as very blunt tools, a last resort because they can have enormous social and economic consequences.

Instead a more targeted, localised, smarter response to slow down transmission is recommended, where data about virus circulation informs focussed interventions.

Also in the programme, The Great Barrington Declaration earlier this month called for an end to current lockdown policies and appealed for the vulnerable to receive “focussed protection” while everybody else “should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal”. The goal, the group of scientists said, should be to minimise deaths and social harm, until herd immunity, or population immunity, is reached.

The World Health Organisation has described such a strategy as dangerous and counterproductive. Claudia’s guests discuss the scientific and ethical issues raised and consider the scale of global exposure to this novel virus. So far only around 10% of the world’s population have been infected so what would a policy of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine mean for the remaining 90%?

Listeners put their questions about coronavirus and the pandemic directly to Claudia and her panel of specialists, which this month includes Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, Technical Lead for the World Health Organisation’s Covid-19 Response; Professor Salim Abdool Karim, a clinical infectious diseases epidemiologist and Chair of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee for Covid-19; Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and one of the signatories to the John Snow Memorandum; epidemiologist Tove Fall, Professor at Uppsala University in Sweden running the Covid-19 symptom app and virologist Professor Steven Van Gucht, from Sciensano, the Belgian national institute for public and animal health.

The Evidence is produced in association with Wellcome Collection. Production team: Fiona Hill and Maria Simons Studio engineer: Jackie Margerum Editor: Deborah Cohen

More Episodes



Apr 20, 2026
Inside Universe 25

“I shall largely speak of mice,” the paper begins “but my thoughts are on man.”

So begins a truly extraordinary scientific paper, and an equally extraordinary story.

“Death Squared: The Explosive Growth and Demise of a Mouse Population.” was published in 1973 by John Calhoun, and it detailed his increasingly bizarre research into the psychological effects of overcrowding. Over two decades he built a series of ‘rodent utopias’, where he could keep a population of rats or mice, meet all their basic food and shelter needs, but mess around with population levels. He wanted to see how they responded to having to live, cheek-by-tiny-jowl, with far more other rats than they were used to. And it wasn’t pretty. Social orders melted into chaos, rodents fought indiscriminately, or shut themselves away at the top of the enclosure. Mating orders collapsed, population numbers tanked, and eventually, every single rat was dead.

His work came at a prescient time. In the 60s and 70s, the exponentially expanding human population was a hot-button topic, and ‘population panic’ was in full swing. Alongside the expansion of cities, creeping urban sprawl, rising city-centre crime rates and 'urban sinks', there grew a concern that human living conditions were about to take an interminable dive. How would we live, with so many of us on earth? Calhoun’s work was leapt on by the press and public as a dire prediction of our own coming collapse. His rodent utopias became a subject of great interest among architects and city planners, psychologists and sociologists, and anyone fascinated by the human condition. But has his work been misunderstood?

50 years on, what lessons can we take from the work of a ground-breaking but often misunderstood scientist, in the face of a human population now exceeding 8 billion. Emily Knight explores his extraordinary work, its implications for humanity, and the possibility of a human utopia, that might not look anything like you expect.

Presented and Produced by Emily Knight in Cardiff


26min 30sec

The Evidence: Are national lockdowns evidence of policy failure?

--:--
--:--